Capacity is quietly leaving the market

Plus a record diesel high and 6,677 live locations

Author

Reed Loustalot
September 11, 2026

TRUCK PARKING CLUB

Friday Bulletin • September 11, 2026

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The Big Thing

The Trucks Are Disappearing. Your Rate Is Starting to Notice.

For two years the problem was too many trucks chasing too little freight. That is quietly reversing. Freight itself has not boomed, but the other side of the scale has moved: carriers have been going out of business, and the ones still running are posting fewer empty trucks. DAT says truck posts are down nearly 30% from a year ago across van, reefer, and flatbed. It does not take a freight boom to move rates when the trucks themselves are thinning out.

You can see it in the load-to-truck ratios, which keep setting highs for this time of year. That is the market's blunt way of saying there are more loads than trucks to cover them, and spot rates have climbed back well above where they sat a year ago (the week's numbers are down in Mile Markers). For owner-operators who spent two years taking whatever cleared the board, that is leverage they have not had in a long time.

Here is the catch, and you feel it every time you fuel. Diesel just printed a record $5.967 a gallon, up almost 37 cents in a single week. The raise is real, but record fuel is skimming a chunk of it before it reaches your pocket. A bigger linehaul number does not mean much if the fuel island takes the difference, which is why your fuel surcharge and your true cost per mile matter more right now than they have in years.

What this means for you. If you run spot, you have more room to turn down a cheap load than you did in the spring, because the truck behind you is less likely to grab it. If you are leased on, know your real cost per mile cold, diesel included, so you can tell a good rate from a bad one on sight. The market is tilting back toward the driver, slowly, and record fuel is fighting you for every cent of it.

The calendar helps. Freight usually firms through the fall into peak season, and this year it is landing on a market that is already short on trucks. If capacity stays thin, the back half of the year could be the firmest rate environment owner-operators have seen since the boom. Watch your ratios and hold your rates.

Mile Markers

Where the numbers landed this week.

Diesel: $5.967/gal, up 36.8 cents on the week and a fresh record high. It now sits about $2.20 above where it was a year ago. (EIA)

Spot rates (all-in, national average): Van $2.95, Reefer $3.54, Flatbed $3.54 per mile. Van rose 6 cents and reefer 9 cents as capacity kept tightening, with flatbed up 4 cents. All three are still running well above a year ago. (DAT)

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News

Class 8 Truck Orders Cooled in August. FTR pegged North American Class 8 net orders at 18,200 units in August, down 19% from July but up 42% from a year ago. Analysts call the monthly dip normal summer seasonality and the tail end of fleets buying ahead of the 2027 engine rules, not weaker demand. Through August, 2026 orders are up 111% over the same stretch last year, and September opens the first real look at how fleets handle the pricier 2027 engines. Read more on The Trucker

Oregon Turns On Statewide Weigh-Station Bypass. PrePass and the Oregon DOT expanded the PrePass bypass app to weigh and inspection sites across the state, now live at 19 locations with two more due by year end. Qualified carriers get bypass decisions and in-cab safety alerts on a phone or telematics unit, no new hardware needed. PrePass says each bypass can save up to seven minutes and trim a little fuel and cost every time you keep rolling. Read more on The Trucker

Pennsylvania Keeps Adding Truck Parking. PennDOT says the state has delivered more than 300 new truck parking spaces this year across two dozen sites, including interstate on-ramps, state-owned lots, and weigh stations, part of a push to add at least 1,200 spaces by the end of 2026. It is one of the larger state parking build-outs in the country, and more spots mean fewer nights circling for a place to shut down. Read more on PennDOT

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