Rates are up, but costs are hitting small fleets hard

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Friday Bulletin • October 30, 2026

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The Big Thing

Rates Are Up, but Costs Are Hitting Small Fleets Hard

Linehaul spot rates are running roughly 28% to 33% above a year ago, and some of the biggest carriers are back in the black. Small carriers are still struggling to stay open. Bloomberg counts 221 trucking companies that have filed for bankruptcy so far in 2026.

Here is the split. Werner's third-quarter revenue jumped 23% to $950.5 million, and its truckload segment swung from a $13.8 million operating loss a year ago to a $23.2 million operating profit. CEO Derek Leathers said the industry is "in the early innings of capacity reductions," driven by enforcement on English proficiency and non-domiciled CDLs, and he expects spot rates to keep climbing through year-end. At the other end, a Truckstop and Bloomberg Intelligence survey of hundreds of carriers running 20 or fewer tractors found about two-thirds with revenue flat or down from a year ago. Almost 40% expect to be out of trucking within six months or aren't sure where they'll be.

The weakness is on the cost side. Diesel is $6.352 a gallon, about $2.63 above a year ago. Insurance is brutal: one small carrier Bloomberg talked to was quoted $155,000 to cover two trucks and three trailers after a driver's accident, and liquidated instead. Stack on expensive short-term debt and freight fraud, which Highway's Freight Fraud Index puts at about $18 million a day, and a 30% rate bump disappears fast. A big carrier spreads those costs across thousands of trucks. A three-truck operation can't.

What this means for you. If you run your own authority, know your cost per mile to the penny, including insurance and loan payments, and don't haul below it just because the rate beats last year. Check your fuel surcharge against what you actually pay at the pump. If you drive for a small fleet, watch how settlements, repairs, and fuel cards get handled. Late pay and deferred maintenance are early warning signs. And as capacity leaves, a clean record is worth more than it was a year ago. Werner says it is spending more to recruit and keep drivers.

Two things to watch: the next EIA diesel print on Monday, November 2, and peak season. Werner expects peak revenue to beat the last couple of years. If rates climb as forecast and diesel cools, the squeeze eases. If diesel keeps rising, small carriers are in for a hard winter.

The rate is only half the math. The fleets still running next year will be the ones who know the other half.

Read more: Bloomberg | Transport Topics | The Trucker

Mile Markers

Where the numbers landed this week.

Diesel: $6.352/gal, up 7.6 cents, its second straight weekly gain. It now sits about $2.63 above where it was a year ago. (EIA)

Spot rates (all-in, national average): Van $3.07, Reefer $3.63, Flatbed $3.61 per mile, down 2 to 3 cents on the week. This time linehaul slipped too, down 2 cents for all three. Linehaul is still running 28% to 33% above a year ago. (DAT)

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News

Check Your Kenworth or Peterbilt for a Fuel Leak. Paccar is recalling nearly 27,000 trucks because a remote fuel filter hose can pull loose from its fitting, leak fuel, and stall the engine. The recall covers 2022 to 2027 model years across several models, including the Kenworth T280, T380, and T480, the Peterbilt 536, 537, and 548, and 2025 Peterbilt 567s. Paccar estimates only about 3% of those trucks actually have the problem. If you smell diesel, see a leak, or get a low fuel pressure warning, get it looked at. The fix is free, and owner letters go out December 20 (NHTSA recall 26V700). Read more on Land Line

Chinese Trailers Now Face Duties Around 260%. The Commerce Department put anti-dumping and countervailing duties of about 260% on certain Chinese van-type trailers, effective October 28, after the International Trade Commission found they were being sold here at unfairly low prices. The duties last at least five years, and a separate probe into trailers from Mexico and Canada is expected to wrap up in early 2027. With trailer orders already surging, don't expect trailer prices to come down soon. Read more on Transport Topics

FMCSA Wants Minimum Training Hours. FMCSA Administrator Derek Barrs told the Women In Trucking conference in Dallas on October 27 that the agency is writing a rule to add required training hours to entry-level driver training, which today demands proficiency but sets no minimum. FMCSA is also drafting tighter oversight of ELD providers, possibly including third-party testing, and a rule that would make English proficiency violations an out-of-service offense. No dates yet. Read more on The Trucker

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